The automotive industry is expecting fundamental changes in the near future. Electromobility and smart technology will change the functioning of the entire industry. The future is in autonomous and electrified cars that people will share with each other.
Q: When will electric cars dominate the market?
One day electric vehicles will dominate. But whether it will be an overwhelming majority in 2030, I still can not guess. However, I think that around 2030 it can start to break.
Q: When do you think that purchases for electric cars will become significant?
I think a big boom will not happen in five years, it will go smoothly and seamlessly.
Q: Why people don’t buy them yet? Do not have money for them?
Exactly. But there is another problem. For example, I live in the center, and I just do not throw a cable in the street so I can´t charge the car. I can charge the car at work, but we do not find many chargers in the center yet. But on the other hand, we see that the whole world is going in this direction, so it will not be avoided.
Q: According to some, electro-mobiles are only a temporary solution. What is your opinion on hydrogen propulsion? Will it be a substitute for electro mobiles in the future or just an alternative to electric cars – like today’s choice between a gasoline and a diesel engine?
Although hydrogen has unquestionable advantages, it has many disadvantages. For example, the high cost of building infrastructure. And since the electromobility infrastructure is already in place, I dare to guess that if nothing fundamentally changes, the winner that will get the market will be electricity and not hydrogen.
Q: What will be the future of the automotive industry in addition to electromobility?
I think it will be self-conducting cars that will be electrified and shared among people. Next, I see the future of the Internet of Things. Cars will be online and will communicate with each other.
Q: Do automobiles become a “workaholic” thing more than mechanics? New cars are more often repaired using diagnostics.
Nowadays, cars are often repaired over the notebook, to say a little bit exaggerated. Auto mechanics will definitely need it all the time. The car remains primarily a mechanical matter. There will be tires, shock absorbers, a battery that recharge, and so on. In the car, for example, the hinges that they will throw, such things will still be many. Auto mechanics do not have to worry about the job. Whoever has to worry about being a professional must be a professional driver. Bus driver, truck driver, the taxi driver.
Q: When do you think more autonomous cars will start to ride along EU roads?
It is important to add where it will be. Attempts to have self-driving buses and trucks as soon as possible are enormous. I think that in 2030 a significant part of this professional transport will be autonomous. Surveys today suggest that in 2030 the proportion of autonomous vehicles could be somewhere between twenty to fifty percent. In my opinion, it will be about every third car. It is important to add that it is unlikely to grow slowly.
Q: Do you think growth will be exponential?
Exactly. Developments in the IT sector go a long way in advance and the demand for safer, cheaper, and faster transport is enormous – that’s why it’s unstoppable. We are not talking about whether or not something is going to happen here. Just imagine that you can choose whether to join a cheap, shared, safe-to-use robot-taxi, or a taxi that drives a slower, more expensive, and more dangerous mortal. Everything just depends on the maturity of the technology. Demand will not be a problem because autonomous cars will have tremendous added value.
Q: Do you agree, however, that this year we are not expecting dizzy changes in self-governing cars?
Now the work is done elsewhere. It takes place in Silicon Valley, Israel, and takes place in offices where everything is done together and tested. It is similar to the late 1970s when the boys around Jobse worked on completely elementary computers that were absolutely unattractive for the mass market at the time. At the beginning of the 1980s, the world knew computers were going to make a huge change, but the adaptation to the mass market was only later. And we’re on the same day with autonomous cars.
Q: Do you think the upcoming changes will lead to a reduction in companies in the automotive industry?
Innovation stands a lot of money, and not all of them have to keep up … I do not think that even in the time of autonomous cars it will be so that there will be one type of robot taxi, which will be produced by a single carmaker. I think all the brands we have around now will remain. They just have to change their business model. Similarly, for example, car loan providers for individuals will have to switch to credit providers for companies that will do fleets of autonomous vehicles. Everyone will have to change the nature of their business. But I certainly do not think that all will be in the hands of big players. On the contrary, there is a huge space for startups that can be fast, they can be highly specialized, and many things that big corporations can adapt for years can bring them to life during the month.